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July 2010 Monthly Sales Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 7:06PM on July 19, 2010

July 2010 Monthly Sales Futures for hardware and software are making their tomorrow.

Remember, for Monthly Software Futures of games that do not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title. If the sales number for the #10 title is not available, there is risk the future will be rolled back!

What is an IPO? This is when a stock first appears for trading. On the simExchange, you will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will being trading as normal at some random hour of the day. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.







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June 2010 NPD Sales Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:31PM on July 15, 2010



The market also tracked the sales of Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (PSP) which did not make the top 10. These futures will be rolled back.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



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May 2010 NPD Sales Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 7:20PM on July 1, 2010



The market also tracked the sales of Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands (Xbox 360), Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands (PS3), Lost Planet 2 (PS3), and Lost Planet 2 (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10. These futures will be rolled back.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



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Delistings for June 2010

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:45PM on June 25, 2010

The following stocks are candidates for delisting. These stocks were chosen for delisting due to inactivity in the stock and/or lack of discussion for an extended period of time. Delisting stocks is necessary to unlock DKP for trading and concentrate DKP in the stocks people are trading.

All shares will cash out at the last traded price. This price is determined as the fair value as the market has not viewed the price as undervalued or overvalued for some time. These stocks will no longer appear when browsing the genres and platforms pages. You will still be able to view the stocks' pages by searching for the games.

If you feel any of the following should not be delisted due to an upcoming event (such as the game has not yet been released in all regions), please make a case and post in this forum by 11AM PT on Wednesday, June 30. A stock price that you are not happy with is not grounds for continued listing.

GLS Stocks pending delisting:
Borderlands (Xbox 360)
Borderlands (PS3)
Dissidia: Final Fantasy (PSP)
The Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena (Xbox 360)
G.I. JOE: The Rise of the Cobra (Xbox 360)
The Godfather II (Xbox 360)
Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 days (DS)
Madden NFL 10 (Xbox 360)
Madden NFL 10 (PS3)
NCAA Football 10 (PS3)
NCAA Football 10 (Xbox 360)
Prince of Persia (Xbox 360)
Red Faction: Guerilla (PS3)
Red Faction: Guerilla (Xbox 360)
Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (Wii)
Wolfenstein (Xbox 360)
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Xbox 360)



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June 2010 Monthly Sales Futures

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:58PM on June 8, 2010

June 2010 Monthly Sales Futures for hardware and software are making their debut on Thursday.

Remember, for Monthly Software Futures of games that do not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title. If the sales number for the #10 title is not available, there is risk the future will be rolled back!

What is an IPO? This is when a stock first appears for trading. On the simExchange, you will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will being trading as normal at some random hour of the day. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.







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April 2010 NPD Sales Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 3:32PM on May 13, 2010

April 2010 was a horrendous month for video game sales. Hardware and software sales dramatically underperformed market expectations.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.



The market also tracked the sales of 2010 FIFA World cup South Africa (Xbox 360), Monster Hunter Tri (Wii), Final Fantasy XIII (PS3), and Final Fantasy XIII (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10. These games will cash ou at 14.3 DKP. Quantum Theory (PS3) was not released in April 2010 and will be rolled back.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



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April 2010 Rankings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 10:19AM on May 7, 2010

Check out the complete April 2010 rankings.



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May 2010 Monthly Sales Futures IPO

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:38AM on April 21, 2010

May 2010 Monthly Sales Futures for hardware and software are making their tomorrow.

Remember, for Monthly Software Futures of games that do not finish in NPD Group's Top 10, the game will cash out at the sales of the #10 title.

What is an IPO? This is when a stock first appears for trading. On the simExchange, you will be able to buy or short sell the Futures and GLS stock at a fixed price for 48 hours. This allows all players equal access to the IPO regardless of the time they log on. After 48 hours, the futures will being trading as normal at some random hour of the day. All players are limited to 250,000 DKP positions in the IPO phase.







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March 2010 NPD Data

Posted by Brian Shiau at 4:41PM on April 15, 2010

March 2010 was a very strong month in video game sales, as expected by the market. The Nintendo DS and Nintendo Wii performed well beyond expectations, beating predictions by 12% each. This was the first non-holiday month since June '09 in which the Nintendo DS sold more than 700,000 units. PS3 sales came below expectations, but it was still the eighth month of year-over-year increase in sales for the platform. According to NPD, this was the third best holiday month on record.

Final Fantasy XIII opened with the strongest sales ever seen for the franchise, 48% higher than the previous installment in the series.

The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.

  • US Hardware in March 2010

    TitleActual unitsExpected units% From Expected
    Nintendo DS 700,800 626,300 11.90%
    Nintendo Wii 557,500 494,800 +12.67%
    Xbox 360 338,400 428,300 -20.99%
    PLAYSTATION 3 313,900 408,100 -23.08%
    PlayStation Portable 119,900 137,600 -12.86%
    PlayStation 2 118,300 -- --
    Total Hardware Units (excludes PS2) 2,030,500 2,095,100 -3.08%


The market also tracked the sales of BioShock 2 (Xbox 360), Red Steel 2 (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), and Yakuza 3 (PS3),which did not make the top 10. The Monthly Sales Futures for these games will cash out at 34.92 DKP.

Where do the expected sales numbers come from?

The simExchange is the video game stock market. Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using fantasy money, players buy virtual stocks in video games they believe are under-predicting sales and short sell stocks they believe are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market." Sign up and play today.

About the predictions

Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).



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April 2010 Delistings

Posted by Brian Shiau at 9:29AM on April 12, 2010

The following stocks are candidates for delisting. These stocks were chosen for delisting due to inactivity in the stock and/or lack of discussion for an extended period of time. Delisting stocks is necessary to unlock DKP for trading and concentrate DKP in the stocks people are trading.

All shares will cash out at the last traded price. This price is determined as the fair value as the market has not viewed the price as undervalued or overvalued for some time. These stocks will no longer appear when browsing the genres and platforms pages. You will still be able to view the stocks' pages by searching for the games.

If you feel any of the following should not be delisted due to an upcoming event (such as the game has not yet been released in all regions), please make a case and post in this forum by 11AM PT on Thursday, April 15. A stock price that you are not happy with is not grounds for continued listing.

GLS Stocks pending delisting:
Halo 3 (Xbox 360)
Metal Gear Solid 4 (PS3)
Spore (PC)
Resident Evil 5 (Xbox 360)
Resident Evil 5 (PS3)
Disaster: Day of Crisis (PS3)
Fable 2 (Xbox 360)
LittleBigPlanet (PS3)
Fallout 3 (Xbox 360)
Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360)
Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures (PC)
Battle of Bands (Wii)
Resistance: Fall of Man 2 (PS3)
Prototype (Xbox 360)
Prototype (PS3)
The Conduit (Wii)
Ghostbusters: The Video Game (Xbox 360)
Ghostbusters: The Video Game (PS3)
Ghostbusters: The Video Game (Wii)
Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars (DS)
Pokemon Platinum (DS)



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