According to VGChartz, the Xbox 360 version is selling about 36% better than the PS3 version. We are forecasting a 77% outperformance by the Xbox 360 version, which is probably too high. Sales of the games are consolidating as well, so I would venture to say the Xbox 360 stock is overvalued more than the PS3 version is undervalued.
In June 2008, Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) sold 238,000 units including special editions according to NPD. The June future has been cashed out at 23.8 DKP.
Just FYI, VGC is estimating 5.47 million units globally for GTAIV (Xbox 360). This title has long tail sales that will probably pull the 360 version to 9 million units, if not 10.
I think it's a difficult one, the UK does indeed represent 30% of Europe under normal circumstances but GTA:IV is a game very attuned to the UK market, the 360 is doing MUCH better here than the rest of Europe and the UK is a significant chunk of the EU PS3 market as well.
I'm sure GTA:IV is doing well in Europe but I'm not so sure it will have shifted 1.5m on it's own, particularly with a weak 360 install base on the continent.
If I was Rockstar I'd have allocated more PS3 stock to Europe and More 360 stock to the US.
Well out of 6million first week sales globally for both 360 and PS3(which is what the NPD for April is, first week) the UK has done a million alone, that normally represents 30-40% of Europe so we can estimate that as a whole Europe will sell well above 2million copies, probably 2.5million, or even higher.
That leaves approx 3.5million to be split between the PS3 and 360 versions in North America and Japan, if Japan and Canada and all other territories accumilate 500k between them, which i can see happening, that leaves only 3million for 360/PS3 combined NPD.
Microsoft is reporting above 60-40 split so that leaves the 360 version around the higher side of 1.8million and PS3 around the lower side of 1.2million. This could be well undervalued, although i cant short atm as im about 3million in the red.
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Either way, that's a big SKU split for the 360 if Pachter is right with 7m
http://ir.take2games.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=332433