Attach rate is a backward way of guessing sales. Call of Duty 2 had a HUGE attach rate on the 360 at launch (75% or so), but it faded off as new people bought the console and bought the newer games. If you were to use CoD2's attach rate to guess CoD3's sales, you'd have projected like 40 million sales. I don't think successful investors should throw away logic like, "How many people buy FPS games?" in exchange for extrapolation based on 2 sample points.
I could imagine Halo 4 (I know they say it's a trilogy, but let's just assume there will be another FPS in the Halo universe) benefiting from the eventual 60 mil install base, but attach rates never grow over the long view.
As console sales graphs show, the monthly sales on a hit console accelerate during the later years, so you would need more and more sales just to maintain your current attach rate. But games tend to get less and less sales month-over-month after they debut.
If the 360 manages to do three times better than the Xbox, it won't be because they have tapped into another 40 million people who want to play Halo. It's going to be a whole different market who play games like GTA, Viva Pinata, Katamari, etc.
The Xbox 1 was essentially the Halo box. Everyone who loved Halo had an Xbox and played Halo. This attach rate idea seems like extrapolating that the candidate who gets 80% of the primary vote is also going to get 70% of the popular vote.
So Halo 2 sold around 9 million copies according to Gamepro (see the wikipedia page for Halo 2). These 9 million sales were at the end of the Xbox lifecycle, when the install base was over 20 million and the console was selling for < $200. There were millions of Halo fans and Halo 2 had finally added Live support. Those guys didn't need to buy a new console to get it, just buy the game.
This time around people have to buy a 360 (Halo 2 is still the #1 Xbox game, so there's a huge amount of their community that hasn't moved up to 360). The 360 is early in the life-cycle, so the price is relatively high.
I just don't understand why people think Halo 3 is going to sell almost 13 million copies.
I actually game across it on IGN.com for the UK today. It seems like a good strategy. The current generation seems to like it. They use it on Lost as well having fake websites and such. Seems like it is a great way to build hype for a game or TV show.
If you read the new bungie.net update, it says there is "a fully playable version of a classic Halo-themed mini-game" in the Collector's edition. Interesting at least.
@decidence, Halo 3 stock is more likely dropping because it was overvalued at 12 million copies. Look at ErikAston's and GoblinMerchant's comments. The basis for 12 million copies was 56 million Xbox 360s, which is also unlikey considering the unremarkable sales last month.
I have to assume people will be selling this stock like mad in the next couple days to make some money in order to buy Starcaft 2 stocks. I think this stock is very high risk anyone agree?
I seriously doubt that today's price drop was because of Thompson's actions. I would rather think a lot of people bought short and are selling at what they determine to be its peak. They will be horrified when the price keeps climbing into the 5000DKP range.
He threatens a company every second week (or website, or retailer...). Do people even care anymore?
How sad is it that a person goes aroudn blaming companies for what retailers do (Selling games to kids)...nevermind that kids playing M rated games hasn't been proven to lead to the Apocalypse, contrary to his rants.
I love how he says the Beltway Sniper "trained" on Halo. I never knew they made analog-stick-controlled sniper rifles.
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I could imagine Halo 4 (I know they say it's a trilogy, but let's just assume there will be another FPS in the Halo universe) benefiting from the eventual 60 mil install base, but attach rates never grow over the long view.
As console sales graphs show, the monthly sales on a hit console accelerate during the later years, so you would need more and more sales just to maintain your current attach rate. But games tend to get less and less sales month-over-month after they debut.
If the 360 manages to do three times better than the Xbox, it won't be because they have tapped into another 40 million people who want to play Halo. It's going to be a whole different market who play games like GTA, Viva Pinata, Katamari, etc.
The Xbox 1 was essentially the Halo box. Everyone who loved Halo had an Xbox and played Halo. This attach rate idea seems like extrapolating that the candidate who gets 80% of the primary vote is also going to get 70% of the popular vote.