We're predicting 4.63 million sales of Halo 2 in a little over 1 month. This seems too high. GamerMetrics predicts Halo 3 to sell 4 million in 2 months, much less than our current prediction. While Pachter says 3 million in 12 days, which would mean it would need to sell another 1.63 million in 1 month after that. This needs to drop.
To conclude the discussion on the 4 million pre-sales article, the article has been removed. No changes have been made to bids or the DKP people have received.
@Laoldar, Those who get burned by an article may get frustrated and leave the SE, thinking 'wth the most upbidded articles on this site are completely wrong' why should I stay here. That is something we don't want to happen. Someone said the person who posted that article is not even active anymore, so why would he even care, he can't if he's not here. Any article of this magnitude that is found to be proved wrong, needs to have action taken upon it.
A) Those who follow the article will get burned and its their problem, not mine. If they get burned enough, they'll either learn or stop moving the prices.
B) The goal of the site is to create accurate predictions. Therefore, if anything is distorting those predictions (such as a debunked rumor), it should be removed so that it doesn't damage the reputation of the site as a whole.
@Deltaneutral, The problem is every member of the SE is not aware of these things. The article is clearly wrong & is influencing the SE market negatively, wrongly. It should atleast be edited.
@kspraydad, I think correctly predicting the market comes from "open" and "free" exchange of information, whether it is correct or incorrect. It is up to the trader to determine whether or not the information is good to trade on. If you read the 4 million presale article, but then see the September future at 2.8 million, then it should be an indicator that people don't believe the article.
There are tons of stocks where people have said this should be at X DKP because VGC data implies so. The stock doesn't alway automatically go to that level because people realize VGC data doesn't actually prove the game has sold that exact amount. Its up to you if you want to trade on that info. Lots of people did for Madden and Metroid and got burned. People who trade on that 4 million presale article will also get burned.
Is the goal here to correctly predict the market or not? I thought it was.
If there is an article that MANY people indicate may be skewing the process AND we have confirmations from the developer themselves that preorders have only crossed the 1 million mark we should remove the article.
This isn't a 'free society' discussion...this is a discussion about making TSE more accurate....isn't it?
This isnt' a slippery slope. It's a bad rumor posted by a player that hasn't posted since July (so they're not going to edit it). In the future we can work towards having people be more cautious about posting rumors/bad info (like the recent claims of Gamestop pre-orders of Mario Galaxy). However, this one has gotten way out of control.
The article has zero value and is distorting predictions on the site. The value of VGchartz numbers can be argued (and hopefully its influence will die down), but there is no value whatsoever in having a long-debunked rumor sitting at the top of the stock articles, driving the price higher.
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