ErikAston, remember the Halo 3 stock is forecasting the lifetime sales, so we can't compare the install base at the time of launch. Halo 3 is a game people will buy over the entire life of the Xbox 360, which we are forecasting will sell 56 million units.
If 56 million units is believable, than 12 million copies of Halo 3 certainly is. I just don't think 56 milion Xbox 360 units is going to happen. I am short both Halo3 and Xbox 360.
"At this point in the last cycle, PS2 and Xbox had recently cut their prices from $299 to $199... ...since most copies of Halo and Halo 2 were sold when Xbox was $199 or less, Xbox fans might be more price-sensitive when it comes to hardware than people in the game industry previously believed..."
If Halo 3 debuts on a system with a lower install base and a much higher cost threshold than Halo 2, how is it going to outsell Halo 2 by over 4 million copies?
@Laoldar, an analyst on CNBC just claimed that Halo 3 sold 4 million copies already in pre-orders. I don't know if he is reading the same Gamestop story, but that is another data point. Usually these guys at least get stastical facts right so I would think apace's Gamestop story has more credibility now.
The source seems a bit fishy... Gamestop "officials" (whatever that means) are telling their stores that, but no one has seen any kind of official notice.
Halo 2 had 1.5 million pre-orders and Gears of War has barely sold 4 million worldwide...can there really be that many Halo 3 pre-orders (and that Gamestop is the first to know?)?
Seems odd. I wonder if this might be a repeat of the God of War 2 mistake.
I'm wondering what people see as the breakdown between regions for this game when they keep buying it up towards 12 million. And I further wonder how many copies people see the game selling in month 1.
Halo 2 sold roughly 6.1 million copies in America, and 1.7 million in Europe. It sold about half of its total in the first month.
With the first month being that important (and the 360 install base being below the XBox install base when Halo 2 launched), and without a precedent for even 2 million sales in Europe (regardless of what the eventual 360 European sales total becomes), I don't think 11.78 million is really a reasonable number. 8 million is mostly expected, 9 million is reasonable, 10 million can be argued. 11.78 million is GTA3 and SM64 range.
(All that said, I'm not taking a huge position on the game, DKP-wise.)
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If 56 million units is believable, than 12 million copies of Halo 3 certainly is. I just don't think 56 milion Xbox 360 units is going to happen. I am short both Halo3 and Xbox 360.