I think the predictions for the 360 selling 54 million copies are not outlandish or unreasonable. I think that when you have such a large install base, the system's "killer app" will sell like absolute crazy.
Personally I'd say both are over-valued. I won't expect that to change until about October/November however. People are pricing consoles based on their personal preferences it seems...as well as the promise of "but sales will increase later!" which is fairly risky to say the least.
The biggest factor with this stock is not so much reviews as it is the install base of the Xbox 360. People who get a 360 are highly likely to be picking up a copy of Halo 3 at some point. Many Xbox 360 owners only got one because they know they will be getting Halo 3 down the line. Right now, trading is forecasting around 54 million Xbox 360s globally, which can easily support 11.2 million copies of Halo 3. However, if the Xbox 360 forecast comes down, so will the Halo 3 game stock.
justcrim, i highly doubt that the reviews will have enough of an impact to damage the hype that halo 3 has recieved, both from internet campaigns and discusions, and the expectations due to halo and halo 2. therefore, i dont think it would be wise to judge the performance of this game based on ineternet reviews.
The best attachment ratio I know of is Super Mario Bros. 3, which had an attachment ratio of 28%. However, we're predicting lifetime sales of Halo 3, it will have many years to reach its stock price. The current predicted lifetime attachment ratio of Halo 3 to the 360 on the SE is: 10.3 million / 54.89 million = 18.7%.
This is really silly. At best, the total installed user base for the Xbox 360 when Halo 3 comes out will be something like 15 million users (most likely less). Even if 5 million more people would buy an Xbox 360 just for this game, that would total 20 million. The way the stock is going, the expected attachment rate is going to exceed 50%. Has there ever been such a game for any console ever?
Just to add a bit of historical perspective regarding the Halo series: -XBox sold roughly 25 million consoles -Halo sold about 6.4 million copies -Halo 2 sold about 7.9 million copies (all numbers via vgcharts of course)
That gives Halo an attachment rate of 25-30 percent! Either that tells of a wide-ranging appeal of the games or that the X-Box had a very narrow appeal itself...you decide.
Just something to keep in consideration. I would also add that people should consider whether or not Halo 3 will get all the gushing "best game ever!" praise that #2 received, especially if it's released in the fall against a heavy slate of competition (several big Wii, PS3 and other 360 titles are expected). Just throwing this out there :)
I dont see the price going down until the first reviews come out. If those reviews are bad it will go down. If they are perfect 10s it may never go down.
With the dates for the Beta now confirmed, expect the hype machine to kick into full gear. With the projected numbers skyrocketing, this beta may prove crucial to this stock reaching its full potential. As the stock approaches $1000.00 a share, I predict a slow, steady rise through the conclusion of the beta. It will likely see a dip after the beta, because the Halo haters and nay sayers are going to be out in force. Then it will begin a steady climb again as the release approaches. It's not to late to see moderate gains with this stock, but the "get in" price may now be out of most buyers budget.
Not only do your links and thumbnails not work...it looks like you are just spamming every video you can find on YouTube, which you also don't spell correctly in the source box.
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