Well I relay on VGC data as on Data Source for my personal estimations. It is just that I have know another source for some games. But you don't have to defend VGC that much. Its enough that a lot of people in the top 20 take their numbers "under consideration".
This battle is a moot point, I don't know anyone on the site who thinks vgchartz numbers are concrete. NPD is also an estimate, keep that in mind, so parading it like it is concrete data is also a bit superfluous. Most people use vgchartz as a trend or to get a feeling for how the game is selling, rather than use it complete fact, such as if vgchartz has a game selling 2 million vs. a game selling .5 million, we would assume that the former game is selling better than the latter. Either way, I probably won't bring up this issue anymore, since it is a matter of opinion and I will vote with my money, the market (and company press releases and business reports) will decide where the stocks should be.
@Just_Ben, I chose Rock Band because VGC has it at 375k through 4 weeks; higher than their "margin" of error vs. your number (which I'm assuming is some sort of NPD insider).
I can easily see COD coming in where you say it will; I couldn't get on either side of it to make it worthwhile. The other ones, I don't really have an opinion on.
No it isn't VGC, but they are near on rockband for the period (They have it at 350 thousand with one week missing). So may I ask why you choose Rock Band? They have Call of Duty down for 511k (also one week missing) so there I am more "away". Just a question :o)
No I won't reveal my source, part of the deal :o) Also I don't get "exact" infos, just "some" infos, so I need to get them "complete" for my own. So there should be an amount of error and guessing involved. :o)
Well I have a source that tells me it did 420-480 thousand (approx).
Call of duty something about 630-680 thousand, Halo 3 about 330-360 thousand and Rockband about 280-320 thousand. I don't know how trustworthy my contact and methods are, at least for know.
@Just_Ben, I think it depends what your approximation of US Xbox 360's vs. Global Xbox 360's is. If you think that 60% in the US is a good number, then 50 DKP is probably too high for you to be long. Personally, I think that US Xbox 360's are more than 60% of global sales, but not by a whole lot.
Secondly, it's hard to approximate what the first MSFT number means, since there is an extra week in their figures. Personally, I think the ME future will come in between 50-52 DKP. I think the MSFT numbers can be broken down by NPD period, with a close numbers between months, but more on DEC.
Ok, just a simple math thing: Microsoft Announced 1 Million sold on december 10th. 1.6 Million on Jan 4th. shouldn't that indicate a lower that 450 thousand in US for December (One week missing in Microsoft dataset)? Just a question, but if the % worldwide of us was about 60% including black Friday, shouldn't it be 50-55% in December (since Europe has a higher growth near Christmas, but no black Friday), leading to 800 to 880k total in the US, or about 300-400 thousand sold in December?
Really just a thought, maybe I do an error in my calculation.
3
Well I relay on VGC data as on Data Source for my personal estimations. It is just that I have know another source for some games. But you don't have to defend VGC that much. Its enough that a lot of people in the top 20 take their numbers "under consideration".