@apujanata, I agree with you. Especially for May Wii sales, Nintendo would be stupid not to have a very large supply of Wiis for the U.S. launch of Wii Fit as they are putting millions of dollars into marketing the game and are getting the game out to the mainstream market. Wii Fit is Nintendo's next system seller for the Wii (for the casual and mainstream markets especially) - Nintendo knows this and will try its hardest to have a large amount of supply for May in the U.S.
@JoshuaJSlone, I agree it might be tough, but it is possible : "Well, there was no big game release in Japan for the next 2 month (Wii Fit, Mario Kart and SSBB are all released), so Nintendo can divert Japan shipment to US."
Now, do you have any reason why you think this (Japan portion shifted to US) will not happen ? If you do, what is the cause ? Personally, weak US$ is not really an excuse for not shifting it to US (as long as Europe have enough supply, which all indicator / rumour have said taht Europe don't have sold out status).
@JoshuaJSlone, Well, there was no big game release in Japan for the next 2 month (Wii Fit, Mario Kart and SSBB are all released), so Nintendo can divert Japan shipment to US.
Don't forget that 721K for March 08 is actually still supply constrained. If there was no supply constrain, it is possible that it can even reach 800K - 900K.
IMO, 650K in April has a very big possibility. I am not sure about 700K in May, but as long as the supply is there, I wouldn't bet against it. Especially now that UK has confirmed that Wii Fit craze are also applicable to them (see Woolworth 90 Wii / minute article) and possibly for Europe ( see those NeoGAF Wii Fit Europe thread at NeoGAF).
When it come to Nintendo and Wii, I wouldn't dare to short them (unless they are predicting 1 Million unit per month on non-holiday non-launch month). I need at least 40% - 50% profit margin before I dare short Wii related games (like I did for Mario Kart Wii April Future).
721K in March was a new non-launch non-holiday record. March has 5 weeks to April and May's 4 each, though. Even matching March on a week-by-week basis, they'd only reach 577K. So those of you going for 650K in April and 700K in May are expecting previous records to be shattered three months consecutively.
I get that Mario Kart and Wii Fit are major releases, but enough that it's obvious Nintendo will have somehow found a way to supply 21% more systems each week in May than March for SSBB?
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Most people are assuming that Wii Fit will be the new killer app for Wii and create additional demand above what Wii Sports is causing.