Remember to look at other graphs as well. Looking at PS2/XB/GC sales from launch, the PS2 was easily beating both consoles for first year sales.
In comparison, for PS3/360/Wii, the PS3 and 360 are tied, but the Wii is far out in the lead.
So, yes, the PS3 is selling at about the same rate. However, for the PS2 that meant selling the same as the other consoles...for the PS3 that means it's far behind the leader.
I feel that systems sold are systems sold. The only indicator in my opinion of a level off in sales of the PS3 will be due to direct competition from the Wii and 360. I'm not sure what difference a staggered release vs. simultaneous release would have on a system, but since all is launched now I see little overall effect. Sure, I could see a temporary impact, but at the end of the day, PS3 has sold as many as PS2, which absolutely no one (except for a quiet minority) was really expecting after Nov 2006's "launch".
What I find interesting is precisely that it has had no effect on the overall sales of the PS3. Software has been disappointing but conflicting with that, I really see Sony hitting its stride this year with some big releases and a drastically improved (from next to no) online presence.
Something you need to consider when doing PS2 vs PS3 : - PS2 release is staggered : March 2000 in Japan, Oct 2000 in US, and Europe after US (not sure when, but I think it is in 2001). - PS3 is released almost simultaneously in Japan & US (both released in Nov 06), with Europe a few month after Japan & US (March 2007, IIRC).
If PS3 truly keeping pace with PS2, it need to have higher LTD (than their current #), because of the simultaneous launch vs staggered launch. It is possible that PS3 might show the effect of simultaneous release in 2008 (by not able to keep up with PS2 sales rate).
I think you misunderstood me slightly...while I like the PS3 and I think it could sell more than 60 million, but I feel the market is too competitive for 120 million PS3s out there...but hey it could still happen!
Do you really think the PS3 is on track to sell near the PS2? Last gen the PS2 had the lead over two consoles that floundered in sales, but this time the PS3 is running in third place. I think the best indicator of PS2vsPS3 sales are coming from current multiplatform titles. Last gen, the PS2 version easily outsold others, but that isn't the case this time. I think this is a strong sign that gamers who helped the PS2 win last time haven't made the switch, or they went to the competitors. Guess we'll see :)
I do agree that a good ad campaign could help, and Sony does usually have fantastic ads for first party games...however, I don't recall seeing any for this type of game. Normally they've been for games like Warhawk, Resistence, etc...will they be able to properly market a quirky non-violent game?
Well I'd like to address your question, but first I want to say you made a great point about GH3 sales. I hadn't really thought of it that way (games like GH as an indicator).
I believe the same was true of Madden games as they moved to PS2. It just has to do with install base. We've already established that while a slow start, the PS3 is performing slightly below par set by the PS2 which went on to sell quite a few units.
I think if we're predicting sales of 60 million PS3 consoles in the end, and LPB will be released in what is typically the heaviest adoption season (third christmas) in a consoles life cycle, this could do far better than you are predicting. I can see the holiday ad campaign now..that is of course if Sony doesn't screw up the whole thing!
Well, nice (friendly) debating but we'll never get based our fundamental argument: I believe LBP's potential is greater than just being a million seller, whether my reasons prove to be unfounded or not. You disagree, and I can live with that. Thanks for explaining your position.
Comparing consoles in Canadian prices will give you wonky numbers because out currency varies so much (though I enjoy the decrease in game prices now!). Domestic currency prices has no direct influence in inflation. Inflation is measured (primarily) in the cost of a standard basket of goods (or through a more complicated GDP measure).
The Saturn sold less than 10 million units and was discontinued in North America in just over 3 years. Considering the Genesi sold 30 million, it was quite the failure. While it still has its fans, there's no mistaking that it was a failure for SEGA.
I see you're still talking about "well, people might do this" when it comes to console buying. After over a year on the market (and two price cuts), I think people should be looking at what consumers ARE doing, instead of optimistically hoping their buying habits will suddenly change in Sony's favour. Though I do agree it will add to the potential sales of LBP...I would argue that the sales will be much closer to 1 million rather than 2-3 however. Casual games are simply not selling that well on the PS3. Guitar Hero 3 sales (for example) lag well behind the Wii and 360.
Why will LBP be different than established franchises (such as GH or Madden) that have seen their sales sharply drop off on the PS3?
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Remember to look at other graphs as well.
Looking at PS2/XB/GC sales from launch, the PS2 was easily beating both consoles for first year sales.
In comparison, for PS3/360/Wii, the PS3 and 360 are tied, but the Wii is far out in the lead.
So, yes, the PS3 is selling at about the same rate. However, for the PS2 that meant selling the same as the other consoles...for the PS3 that means it's far behind the leader.