this is just one retailers pricing, the versions can be found for exactly the same price at various other (and bigger) stores throughout the country. this price discrepency should not be taken as a relection of the entire market.
Major UK high street retailer WHSmiths has priced the PlayStation 3 version of GTA IV at £44.99, while the 360 version will cost £5 less at £39.99.
The pricing has been confirmed as part of the chain’s pre-order campaign.
I would say the PS3 version is the more over-valued. The markets where this game will sell well are the Xbox 360's strongest markets, i.e. North America and the UK. Whilst the PS3 is doing comparatively well in the UK and obviously much better in continental Europe, this won't matter so much because sales in the UK will be much stronger than on the mainland, at least IMO.
I also think the DLC will have a massive impact if as I expect there is a significant marketing push behind it and a US 360 price cut to go with it. Not to mention, software sales on the PS3 have yet to catch light yet. I think even 5m is ambitious.
But still this is over-valued as is but I'm much more uncertain as to how much and it has admittedly great potential given stellar 360 software sales to date. If I had more money I'd short it but for now I'm sticking to the PS3 version.
@lstormy10, A little correction so that clarity can be maintained: "Since the first GTA title, there has always been at least 2 full GTA titles per a generation of consoles.
Let me also make it clear that I believe that the 360 version is the more overvalued stock out of the two versions.
@sagexsdx, On the matter of the GLS (for both versions), both are currently overvalued. The best-selling GTA game ever was San Andreas with around 20 million units worldwide. This number is a combination of all platforms - meaning PS2, Xbox, and PC. Also, this number is as of fall last year.
The PS2 has sold over 120 million units and the Xbox sold about 24 million units. So more than 144 million consoles could were available for San Andreas to be played on.
Since the first GTA title, there has always been at least 2 full GTA titles. There is no reason why RockStar wouldn't create another GTA title this generation - GTA is an awesome money maker because of its high sales. Once another GTA comes out for that generation of consoles, the sales of the previous GTA are significantly slowed.
At this early point in this console generation for installed base of both the 360 and PS3, it is highly unlikely that the two versions will combine to sell at least over 19 million as the simExchange's numbers currently predict. Though because of the lifespan and popularity of the GTA series probably being a bit higher for GTAIV, the sales of GTAIV will probably be closer to that of Vice City - 15 million.
In conclusion, the GLS stock for the 360 version of this stock is overvalued by a significant percentage and the PS3 version could be overvalued or undervalued depending on how the hardware sales for PS3 perform during the rest of the year and how the prospect of exclusive DLC for the 360 version affects sales.
@sagexsdx, 2.6 million could be possible: -360 HW on Sept 22 2007 in NA was ~7.4 million. -360 HW in NA currently is ~11.3 million -360 HW in NA could very well reach over 12 million by the time GTA IV releases, or more varying based on any potential new SKUs or pricecuts.
1) yes, MS announced about a month ago that there were 17.7 million 360s worldwide
2) even if there weren't 12 million, this is lifetime sales so it doesn't necessarily matter if there aren't 12 million consoles there now, especially if eventually it sells around 60 million units like TSE is predicting.
3) yes i think the price is ridiculous considering the total sales are going to be split a certain percentage between 360 and PS3
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this is just one retailers pricing, the versions can be found for exactly the same price at various other (and bigger) stores throughout the country. this price discrepency should not be taken as a relection of the entire market.