I'm just trying to figure out the reasoning people have for continuing to purchase this title up after it gets shorted down, there are obviously a ton of people who think it will sell 7 million because any time it drops below that level it instantly is bid back up again.
I'd be shorting the hell out of this if I had the cash to spare. There are big question marks over the PS3 version in terms of DLC and whether Microsoft's exclusive deal means this will be marketed primarily as a 360 title, like Assassin's got a lot of PS3 marketing.
Even without that I'd say 7m is an optimistic projection at best. To achieve that you're talking Halo like numbers and attach rates with a much smaller Western install base than the 360.
Rockstar Games has finally answered assumptions that PlayStation 3 development trouble was the reason behind GTA IV's 2008 delay, admitting that it "definitely" contributed to the slip.
i think that date printed is probably based on estimates originally published by rockstar. microcenter isn't really a big gaming store, though they've been trying.
I don't think this stock is overpriced. GTA:San Andreas managed to get 7 Million sales in US alone. If we ignore Japan sales (too small), and assume sales in Europe is at least half US (if not same as US), then we got 10.5 Million WW sales, on PS2, which is 100 Million WW.
If the prediction that PS3 will get 50 Million H/W in the future, it is reasonable to expect GTA4 to get at least 50% of 10.5, or 5.25 Million sales. The increase to 6.6 Million is not to big (only 25%), so not a big difference that can warrant shortselling.
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I'm just trying to figure out the reasoning people have for continuing to purchase this title up after it gets shorted down, there are obviously a ton of people who think it will sell 7 million because any time it drops below that level it instantly is bid back up again.