Sure PS2 owners bought all the GTA versions...but how many of them have a PS3? Did any of them move to the 360? Will they? It's quite possible that the 360 simultaneous release could bleed sales away from the PS3 version.
Looking at PS3 sales (and the aggregate prediction here), the PS3 will be lucky to get about half the install base that the PS2 had. The question is then if the half that stayed were the GTA fans or not.
Yes, GTA games keep selling even after another version is out. But not nearly as well. Vice City and San Andreas were extremely frontloaded (about 70% of Vice City's American sales were in its first year). San Andreas actually sold less in America than Vice City, so PAL sales were crucial (and we all know how that's going).
Several GTA-style games have appeared on the 360 already, and sold well. I'd say it's a distinct possibility that many GTA fans jumped from Sony to Microsoft for that, especially knowing that they'll get their GTA fix on time anyways.
I think it's tough to call...at this point, what advantage does the PS3 version have over the 360 for a GTA fan? Aside from a higher console pricetag. By the time the PS3 has a chance to get a large enough install base, I think a new entry in the series will come along and cannibalize its sales.
personally i have all the gta's and most people i know have the smae thing. even if they launched another grand theft auto people will still buy this one. anyways this game will sell at least 7 million. at least thats what i think.
I feel it should start at 7 million and we go from there up or down. GTA:SA sold ~14 mil & GTA IV is highly anticipated. However, there are tons of great games coming out around the same time. So it will have a lot of competition.
kspray, I agree with your points except for the argument that a new GTA would cut the demand for GTA IV. GTA games are not like Madden games. A new one doesn't make you not want to play the old one as they are not just "updates." People are still buying GTA III and GTA VC long after GTA SA came out.
To reach 7 million in GTA IV sales at the historic best attach rate for this game (17.5%) you would need to have 40 million PS3s in circulation...
Given Sony's projections you would be looking at Xmas 2010 before getting to that level of console sales...I would think that there would be AT LEAST 1 more iteration of GTA released well before then...thus severely cutting into GTAIV sales at that point.
I would argue that GTA games continue to sell for over a year. Just looking at the install base at the end of 2008 is short-sighted when evaluating a GTA game. Remember, this prediction is for the LIFETIME sales of the game (including the $20 Greatest Hits versions).
Well..considering it will take a minimum of xmas 2008 before PS3 is at 20 million consoles sold (assuming 10 million consoles per year)...you would STILL be asking for 35% of all PS3 owners to purchase this game to get to 7 million sold....
GTA San Andreas was the biggest selling PS2 title in the series and it sold 14 million on an installed base of 80 million (attach rate of 17.5%)....
The premise looks set to be in Liberty City ('New York') with you seemingly playing an Eastern European (Russian? most likely) starting life anew in America.
The quote at the end of the trailer:
"Life is complicated. I killed people, smuggled people, shot people. Perhaps here, things will be different."
2
Looking at PS3 sales (and the aggregate prediction here), the PS3 will be lucky to get about half the install base that the PS2 had. The question is then if the half that stayed were the GTA fans or not.
Yes, GTA games keep selling even after another version is out. But not nearly as well. Vice City and San Andreas were extremely frontloaded (about 70% of Vice City's American sales were in its first year). San Andreas actually sold less in America than Vice City, so PAL sales were crucial (and we all know how that's going).
Several GTA-style games have appeared on the 360 already, and sold well. I'd say it's a distinct possibility that many GTA fans jumped from Sony to Microsoft for that, especially knowing that they'll get their GTA fix on time anyways.
I think it's tough to call...at this point, what advantage does the PS3 version have over the 360 for a GTA fan? Aside from a higher console pricetag.
By the time the PS3 has a chance to get a large enough install base, I think a new entry in the series will come along and cannibalize its sales.