@Joe80, From June 2008 NPD Blog : "Neither Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) nor Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) made the Top 10 this month and so we will need to get the data from NPD manually. There may be some delay due to E3."
My GTAIV PS3 short are still showing up in my portfolio screen, so you are not alone. I think KoC will need 1-2 more days to get the # from NPD, as per his post.
UK sales of this game are estimated to be around 1.5 million, so I will put 2 million for all countries where X360 is likely to lead. Using 60:40 sales ratio, this gives 800K sales for PS3 version.
US - 4.2 million Other pro-X360 - 2 million Rest - 2.3 million
I assume PS3 is equal or better in sales in Rest of world so about 1.2 million sales for PS3. Which is roughly my guess of 3.5 million sold sofar.
If you do not believe that PS3 version can reach current projected GLS, then you should also be negative on X360 version GLS as it also will have to approximately double current sales total to reach projected GLS.
I believe the current GLS is within possible sales total for this game. It still has 3 positive factors:
1. official bundled with hardware in PAL countries. 2. still has year-end gift season to come. 3. still has Greatest Hits release to come.
The previous GTA games have shown long term sales also. The Japanese release should add some more sales for PS3 version compared to X360 version.
You're right, though France isn't that much bigger than Germany, it's a couple of percentage points at best. I'd just woken up when I wrote the comment below :)
Outside of the US, the next strongest market for GTA:IV is the UK (since in Japan it's not even out). The UK market strongly mirrors the US market (360 2m, PS3 1m in HW, 60:40 split in GTA:IV SW). Canada, another significant market, is likely to be the same. Well over 1m of those 8.5m is going to be the UK alone.
I'm not sure GTA:IV is strong enough in continental Europe (where the PS3 is doing much better than the 360) to make much of an impact on these trends. In Germany, the next biggest European market, it was ousted by Age of Conan after only a week.
I don't disagree with any of your assertions. It probably is around 3m or so, it will sell for a long time. Just not to 7m.
@Mushashi, How about the factor of PS3 H/W trailing PS2 H/W and PSP H/W, if you lined up their "since launch" figure ? Do you think this factor will decrease the price ?
Global sales for PS3 version are most probably over 2x US total, we know that this game has sold over 8.5 million copies worldwide and 4.2 million copies in US, we also know X360 is strongest in US, I assume similar sales levels in rest of world between PS3 and X360, so I am estimating PS3 version at around 3.5 million copies sold within first 5 weeks.
I think with stable sales of PS3 in Europe and NA, this game will continue to sell for a long time, previous GTA games are still selling many years after release on PS2 and PSP.
Only ~400K for US May NPD? I'm starting to doubt this will get to 5m let alone 6m. It must barely be halfway there worldwide, % gap between 360/PS3 got wider this month and the hardware bump just hasn't happened.
1
From June 2008 NPD Blog :
"Neither Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) nor Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) made the Top 10 this month and so we will need to get the data from NPD manually. There may be some delay due to E3."
My GTAIV PS3 short are still showing up in my portfolio screen, so you are not alone. I think KoC will need 1-2 more days to get the # from NPD, as per his post.