Apologies, GTA:IV sales are over 10m as August 16th according to their 3Q filings. They did not give updated guidance for their Q4 report yesterday. That would indicate to me they they haven't hit the 11m mark yet.
Regardless if Pachter is right then the PS3 SKU has't hit 4m yet.
As much as I know I'm talking to myself, Pachter reckons the 360 version has sold 7m or so, that puts the PS3 sku in worse light than I thought based on the 9.5 last reported by T2.
This GLS should be 5m at absolute best IMO.
Pachter reckons the 360 SKU has sold 7m. That's a lot higher than I thought. Last I heard from Take 2 was 9.5m? I thought we'd have heard when it got to 10m. That's a massive differential between this and the PS3 version on that basis.
I used NPD data from NeoGAF in combination with Zelnick's tie-ratio's to come up with the figures. If we were to assume the same ratio in Europe as well as approx 7m sales (and they represent the top end of both the EU PS3 install base and GTA:IV's likely tie ratio, IMO) then you can add another 2.24m. Throw in a 100K or so for Japan and GTA:IV has sold in the region of 4m through October on the PS3.
That's 1.82m short of what TSE predicts. I think the 360 version will have better legs and common consensus is the 360 is moving the hardware right now. Personally speaking I think 5m is where it will end up.
Obvious disclaimer: I've been short on this stock since 8m or so and still am.
Take 2 CEO Strauss Zelnick has stated that the tie-ratio for GTA:IV is the "highest ever". Citing US NPD data through October, the tie ratio was 32% for the PS3 and 28% for the 360 (the latter having a much bigger userbase with a greater proportion of more casual users). That would make the US LTD 1.82m for PS3 & 3.25m for 360 by my reckoning.
GamaSutra's monthly NPD analysis has an estimate of 1.8m LTD for PS3 GTA:IV. As much as a few here and there will be sold in Japan and it's likely the PS3 sku will at least match the 360 sku in PAL territories I still think this is over-valued. Especially with a big marketing push for the 360 DLC to come.
LTD probably isn't even 4m yet. I don't see the legs even with a likely "Platinum hits" edition to get it over 6m. My target price is 5m.
NPD data suggests that sales of Grand Theft Auto IV may be foundering against high expectations, with consequences for Take-Two as it argues for a better deal from Electronic Arts, according to CNN Money. NPD Data shows that GTA IV was the 46th best-selling game in August, down from 45th place in July. The slowing sales have caused concerns that, with 8.5 million units sold to date, the title may fail to meet sales expectations.
In a Q3 fiscal 2008 earnings call, Take-Two CEO Benjamin Feder revealed the publisher expects sales of Grand Theft Auto IV to exceed any previous GTA title. "First Rockstar is launching a new marketing and PR campaign which will start in the fall and extend into the holiday season. Also as a must-have game for all fans of interactive entertainment, GTA IV we believe should receive a boost from the ramp up in hardware sales during the upcoming holiday season," said Feder.
In June 2008, Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) sold 158,000 units including special editions according to NPD. The June future has been cashed out at 15.8 DKP.
NY-based video sharing service Vimeo has decided to no longer allow host vidoes of GTA IV gameplay or gameplay from other games. In an announcement made yesterday on the Vimeo company blog, Blake Whitman noted that new videos will be removed and current videos are subject to deletion after September 1st.
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Regardless if Pachter is right then the PS3 SKU has't hit 4m yet.
http://ir.take2games.com/ReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=332433