This stock is creeping back up over 10% over-valued territory again. There is plenty of supporting evidence to suggest this SKU is well well short of 5m and I viewed that as the top end of expectations.
I've been cashing out in the very low 500's but it's almost worth shorting again now.
I still think this tops out at 5m when all is said and done. This would put the install base in these 3 territories for PS3 around the 3m mark at present with probably another 1-1.5m or so from other territories.
@deftangel, VGC's GTAIV data : PS3 : 2.3 Million America = 2.07 Million US vs. 1.89 Million NPD = 9.5% over-estimate X360 : 4.27 Million America = 3.84 Million US vs 3.29 Million NPD = 16.8% over-estimate.
Just to back this up. NPD has given us LTD's on GTA for both platforms. 360 outsells it 2:1. PS3 version has so far sold 1.89m which means VGChartz are over-estimating this title by 20 percent.
According to Take 2 financials, GTA:IV has sold between 10m & 11m. The 360 / PS3 split won't be as dramatic in Europe but the top end of expectations 50:50 (despite 360 1m lead and larger proportion of "core" gamers) means splitting 5m down the middle.
Add in the handful from Japan and you arrive at around the 4.5m mark at absolute best. I'd say closer to 4m.
According to the NPD annual software charts for 2008, Rockstar’s Grand Theft Auto IV 360 outsold GTA IV PS3 by nearly 2:1.
The open world action title sold 3.29 million copies on 360 and just 1.89 million on Sony’s console where GTA games have traditionally resided. In fact, last year’s release was the first simultaneous multiplatform release for the franchise.
GTA IV 360 could see a resurgence in sales as platform exclusive DLC, Lost and Damned, becomes available later on this year.
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Seems NPD isn't the best indicated or worldwide sales (though we should know EU tastes run different).
According to the earnings call with Take Two the sales of GTAIV have been 'approximately 50/50' when it comes to sales of GTAIV on Xbox 360 vs PS3.
Given sales of 13 million this would put both at approx 6.5 LTD.
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