That is as i feared and is very disappointing, i much preferred playing the software futures rather than the hardware, and i think its a real shame they have been lost, hopefully they will make a comeback before too long.
@vGInfidel, I believe there are no game futures at this point in time, for any future month. I forget why. I do remember previously only being able to get NPD data for games that were very likely to be in the top 10, but maybe now we can't even get that from NPD? I forget.
Lol, my ability to bid has been suspended after accidentally double clicking on the SAME bid button, it doesnt even count as two bids and yet i get suspended lol. Not that i even care as i rarely bid anyway, just thought id point out yet again how stupid and overbearing the bid limit system in its current state is.
On a side note, are there going to be any Games Futures listed for July? I presume not as NPD data is only 2-3 weeks away, but would like to know for definite. If as i presume there isnt any, why is this? and will it continue meaning no more Games Futures?
I have no real hard rules on how much I limit my positions to. If I had 100% conviction that a stock was going to go in my favor and the potential for profit was also good I'd seriously consider putting down the max 35% into it. But there is simply no way I would be able to get that size of a position through TSE market makers. I could only acquire that type of position if others are willing to sell it to me. So sometimes the size of my positions have a lot to do with what how much money is on the other side.
The bad thing is, all my bids have been removed, even the standard bit on my own game submission (know it looks like it has been down bid for others) but my bid trust is still in the red, there ya go. Wonder if you also run in the bid protection if you submit many article, images and games in a day?
I knew this automated spam bot thing is just a plain right stupid idea, oh well, never any bids from me for anything then.
@Just_Ben, I encountered this kind of problem before, and I can bid again the next day (didn't really note the time, and check whether it is 24 hours later, or some 10 - 15 hours later). Don't worry.
Hey nice, I get a message: Your ability to bid has been suspended after I have gone through ~1.5 pages of game submissions?
Does this mean I can't bid anymore, forever? Is that not turned off there (I thought we should bid on all games submitted so the admins know what we want to trade).
@zukaus, One question I forgot to ask : Why you "only" invest 4 Million DKP as short ? I am sure your networth at that moment are at 200 Million DKP or more, so 4 Million is only 5% of your networth. Do you have policy of not going over a certain % of your networth on one stock (don't want to put all your egg in one basket), or is it more because you ran out of "short margin" ?
When my networth was still small, I can focus on stocks of game that I know well. I didn't even think about investing in FPS games, or any other game that I didn't play on. However, the bigger my networth became, the more difficult for me to find stock are are "wrongly priced", so to speak, so I HAVE TO started going outside of my specialized genre (RPG and SRPG), and try to predict things that I am not familiar with (like you did with COD4). Luckily, at the time of COD4 GLS, my networth are still small, so I didn't invest in it (I did around Jan / Feb, when it is apparent that the stock is doing better than predicted).
I think the lesson I learned from your COD4 "mistake" is : - developer is very important (I previously didn't differentiate between developer, only concerned with publisher) - better invest in area that you are familiar with (the more ignorant you are of a certain genre, the bigger the possibility of you forgetting one or more detail that significantly affect the sales potential).
Right now, I have about 3 Million "idle money", since I couldn't find any better way to use them (without going into speculative position). I always have to remind myself not too be too confident of my own analysis / prediction, since I have made lots of mis-prediction in the past.
Personally, I think the only reason I can rise to my current level is because I still have more "success" compared to "mistake", not because I didn't make any mistake. Reducing the mistake, especially in the GLS market, is my top priority nowadays, since I couldn't get profit from the futures like I did before (5 Futures stock that are focused on Top 10 Monthly does not give as big profit possibility as 10 Futures that include those outside of Top 10 monthly).
Thanks for sharing your mistake. I hope I can do a better investment in the GLS by utilizing the things I learned from you.
No worries Apujanata, I never really thought you were angry or had "hard feelings" it's just an expression. I haven't forgotten we've had our differences. As for big mistakes I've made, well I've had my share of screw ups but I'll talk about one I've mentioned before, Call of Duty 4 for the 360.
Right now, I have a 7 million DKP short position in CoD4. That's not because I think it's really overvalued at this point. It's because I thought it was greatly overvalued way back when it was priced at 400 DKP. I spent around 4 million shorting it at that price and I have now lost almost all of it after it blew up in my face. But why was I wrong, and why did I think it was overvalued at 400 DKP when it wasn't?
Well, I think one reason I screwed up was because I put too much credit into past sales numbers. CoD2 only sold about 2 million on the PS2 and CoD3 also sold about 2 million in sales on the Xbox 360, so I thought 4 million would be a reasonable level to start shorting CoD4. Big mistake, just because a game sold X doesn't mean its sequels cannot sell 4X.
Another big mistake was that I didn't really know the Call of Duty franchise. FPS games are not my cup of tea so I don't know as much about them. I failed to take into account how important the return of Infinity Ward would be for the 4th title. At the time I did not realize that CoD3 was made by different developers, Treyarch, and how sales of CoD3 were likely depressed because they just didn't do as good of a job as Infinity Ward. I mistook flat sales as a sign of a stagnate franchise when in fact it was because the franchise's premier developers were just on vacation.
Lastly I think I made a mistake in allocating my money. After a degree of success you may find it becomes harder and harder to find a place to spend all your DKP. I've certainly had that problem for a while now. In the past I attempted to remain fully invested in order to maintain as high a rate of growth as possible. I was so caught up in trying to use up my free cash that I took too many speculative positions and I let some positions grow far too large and now I am paying for it. Every time I view my public profile I am reminded of these mistakes.
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That is as i feared and is very disappointing, i much preferred playing the software futures rather than the hardware, and i think its a real shame they have been lost, hopefully they will make a comeback before too long.