"I just think of GLS stocks as a popularity contest"
This is largely how markets work. Things are worth what people think they are worth. Oil is worth whatever buyers are willing to pay. Even if fundamental information is available, people often ignore it in the hopes to make profit by selling to "the greater fool."
Bubbles started as early as the 17th century when Europeans went through the Tulip Bubble. Vast sums of wealth were spent buying tulips (yes the flower) because people thought they could always sell them for more. We saw this 10 years ago in the Internet bubble, recently with the housing bubble, and right now with the commodities bubble.
Eventually these bubbles crack when the price reaches an unsustainable point--when people realize that the fundamentals are getting priced in.
What usually works is making a good argument about where actual sales are and why total sales will only be at X. You will often find the stock will react.
I had a bunch of shares shorted on God of War PSP @ 8 something or so. Yesterday, for some reason the stock had dropped to like 2 or 3 for a little while. I didnt know why at the time, but I bought out a lot of it until it suddenly jumped back to 9 or so.
Now I wake up this morning and I find that the trades have been rolled back, which is fine, but now the bunch of restored shares I have say they are sold @ 5.16 instead of the original 8 something. That is absolutely not correct, I believe doing the math from the trade history should yield something closer to the original 8.something.
As I stated, "without official sales data" or VGChartz, it is all just a popularity contest, in my opinion.
Stalker: Shadow of Chernobyl was an unpopular GLS before it was delisted, when more useful sales data became available, it was too late to change the GLS projection which was severely under probable actual sales.
not necessarily. GLS have boundaries too. when actual monthly sales numbers come out as well as PR announcements from companies, there is some adjustment. also people use VGChartz as a way to track the trend of the sales.
It may be surprising to realize that all good free markets operate in this fashion. Prices are all based on what people "think". It's individual opinion which ultimately affects price. TSE GLS markets are remarkably similar to how real life stock markets function, with the exception of the automated marketmaker and the cash-outs.
Prices on the stock market are based on opinion and what people are willing and able to pay. Prices are not adjusted automatically by an invisible hand, they move based on buyers and sellers in the market. Of course things like earnings, interest rates, and other news can affect opinion and stock prices will move based people's reactions just as how TSE prices might move based on NPD numbers, press releases, or just plain hype. It may be very disconcerting and frustrating when you find that you have a position/opinion that is at odds with the rest of the market but that's how free markets work.
@DrMarioKart, You assumed that you were right on the NPD value. If you are wrong in NPD value, there is "No mercy" for you.
In GLS, even if you are wrong, as long as other THINK like you, you can back out (change your stand) more easily. That is just the way it is. NPD is short term, more volatile. GLS is long term, (usually) not volatile.
Man, I dont understand GLS at all. Its like with NPD, I can count on hard data laying down the law in short order, but it seems GLS is more about what people THINK before the time runs out before it goes inactive for a while and gets cashed out.
If you maxed out what you could buy/sell in NPD, you would eventually be redeemed even if you were down the entire time before numbers came out. In GLS, if you are down and maxed out, theres not really much hope for you.
@Mushashi, I see. Thanks for feedback. I didn't even realize that SERAPHRowen is the higher inactive high-ranked player. :)
My personal target now is getting into Top 25 this month (hopefully), and getting into Top 10 sometime this year. But it is true, getting above a moving target (active player) is much more difficult than getting above a static target (inactive player).
Ranking position is only relative to other players networth. Gaining ranking position is quite easy at first as lower ranked players are quite close in networth. Once you have passed SERAPHRowen, who is the last inactive high-ranked player, then your ranking position is much more difficult to change much as the networth distance becomes greater. It is like starting the game by a gentle hill walk and the elevation becomes greater until you will eventually face the vertical drop of ranking #2 ;-)
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"I just think of GLS stocks as a popularity contest"
This is largely how markets work. Things are worth what people think they are worth. Oil is worth whatever buyers are willing to pay. Even if fundamental information is available, people often ignore it in the hopes to make profit by selling to "the greater fool."
Bubbles started as early as the 17th century when Europeans went through the Tulip Bubble. Vast sums of wealth were spent buying tulips (yes the flower) because people thought they could always sell them for more. We saw this 10 years ago in the Internet bubble, recently with the housing bubble, and right now with the commodities bubble.
Eventually these bubbles crack when the price reaches an unsustainable point--when people realize that the fundamentals are getting priced in.
The simExchange has this document about why the GLS stocks should work.
What usually works is making a good argument about where actual sales are and why total sales will only be at X. You will often find the stock will react.