I have been shorting both the PS3 and the WII for sometime now it is a losing battle but at least I am trying. It does mean I make one day and lose big the next but it is a challenge.
The WII seems to be the one with the most inflated price and then the PS3. The 360 is probably overpriced but I do not need to throw money at that one in fact I have gone long after it was shorted massively.
I am waiting to see how the 360 performs this holiday season as I think it has one of its strongest combinations and should perform well. The PS3 I think in europe is still riding its brand although I think we have some indication that the price cut for the 360 has helped it significantly. For me the PS3 has not proved it is doing anything more than staying in third position as it still promises jam tomorrow and Microsoft have always managed to counter any moves that Sony made when attempting jam today.
My personal targets:
PS3 - Short term stop the PS3 from exceeding 75 million personally I think it should be 70 million but a lot depends on if you believe that the PS3 will still be Sony's only console on sale in 7 or 8 years from now. Although I think the system has the oomph to survive the perception will be that it is old when Microsoft with its success this generation plugs any gaps its system had this time round.
WIii - Short term stop the Wii from exceeding 180 million personally I think it should be around 150 this is much harder target as more money gets pumped into this stock and so I have little impact and lose lots of money. My other problem with Nintendo is will they produce another Wii like they have with the DSi extending the life by the back door.
360 - Short term maintain a price of 68 million. A lot depends on how well they do this holiday season and if they under perform I will no doubt lose bucket loads of DKP especially as that would mean the PS3 will by default of performed well.
I think my choices highlight the risk in investing in this stock when compared to say something like World at War which is more predictable than the console lts number which are not.
About total console : Yes, console are penetrating new markets. Did they increase the market by 80%, to 335 Million ? I don't think so.
In my own family, last gen we have 7 unit. This gen I have 8 unit. The GLS might be too high, but not ridiculously high (as in 100%+ overpriced), since ridiculous price will always attract high networth player. The bigger the profit margin is, the more they are willing to suffer the risk.
Like vGInfidel said, I have been playing here for less than 1 year (I think I started to be active, playing almost daily, around Dec 4, 2007, so I am around 11 month active). I didn't see any value for 1 year future just for the console, since 1 year is too long. If I want short term investment, I would just invest in future.
I think the source of all of our GLS problem is the Time Trust DKP. Like me, most player would HATE to "lose" that money, and would rather invest it in some stock (driving up their prices) rather than let it "vanish". Even if I am wrong, and my "time trust DKP" stock suffer adjustment to reflect better price, I would still get some money out of my "time trust DKP".
Elminate the Time Trust DKP, and you would have solved the GLS overprice problem. However, that create another problem : How to made player visit simEx everyday ? Time Trust is the one thing that made player visit simEx everyday (I know that is the reason I visit simEx everyday, and I think lots of other player have the same reason). Since I don't have solution to the new problem, I couldn't suggest removal of Time Trust DKP. Maybe someone else have an idea ?
@vGInfidel,Could we not launch a new 1 year future every three months then, rolling 1 years instead of fiscal one years?...keep it 'fresh' and you can shift from shortterm to long term investing as you see thing happen?
I was having the same thoughts but i see problems with this method. One year is a very long time to wait, to put it into context ive not been playing a year yet (though nearly) and im rank 14, and i know apujanata has been playing for a similar amount of time and he is rank 5. I think that the stock would be left to be inflated by newer players as high networth players would steer clear for the first 9-10 months of the year and then try and build up a significant position, and get return on investment within 2 months not 12.
Im not sure whether quarterly figures would work, although on the basis of providing predictions to the industry (i know were not at that stage and may never will be), estimates of quarterly figures would be VERY valuable if accurate. Although it would be a simple case of adding up the numbers really with NPD and Japanese numbers being released publicly, and then extrapolating European figures which would leave a low margin for error and so a small profit margin.
@apujanata,It seems to me all rationality has been lost on the GLS stocks as TSE has grown..it is a popularity contest rather than a measure of reality imo.
Here is a proposal. We launch futures for the consoles that are 1 fiscal year long...that way you get your payout within the year and this may encourage people to be as aggressive short as they are long on the console stocks. The payout will be measured against the manufacturers shipped/sold through numbers. This could be launched at the start of the next fiscal cycle.
@vGInfidel, Once upon a time, I invested a small amount of money to short Wii. I believe it is around 1 Million DKP, at 16K price point. However, the stock goes up and up and up, to it's current price point.
Since I need those margin to invest somewhere else, I take a loss on it, and drive up the price at the same time. Thereafter, since I don't have lots of idle money, I decided to stay away from Wii and NDS GLS (NDS is another of those "unbelievably high" GLS stock that I don't have spare money to short on.
I agree with you on "Going short on this is throwing DKP down the drain".
I believe its a case of no experienced players with major DKP wanting to put their money into a stock on which they wont see a return for a very long time. This allows newer players who base their investments on what they like, not what is right, to have free roam on the stock to push it as high as they like, in fact if i had been a bit smarter before i would have gone long on it along with them. Going short on this is throwing DKP down the drain.
Just a general chat question to all TSE participants.
From the last gen systems total consoles sold is approx 185 million. We are currently projecting this for the Wii ALONE.
We are currently projecting 335 million current gen systems sold.
Can someone provide a rational explanation for an 80% INCREASE in the number of consoles sold this gen? Are they really penetrating new markets that well? Are they really going to sell into the market malaise as compared to the booming period of the previous gen? Are they not getting more competition from other forms of electronic entertainment compared to in previous gen?
I just don't see the rational behind our projections.
Where can I turn if I have some technical problems?
My available to buy line says 0.00
i have cash and short positions but they do not reach the mnargin. i do not have any future buy orders so i should not have any cash held back. but i still can't buy anything.
Anyone has any ideas what could happen to my account?
Your spare DKP to buy or short depends on your networth and wether you have invested DKP already.As you are a low networth player and new,you will have low short or buy amount available.
1
The WII seems to be the one with the most inflated price and then the PS3. The 360 is probably overpriced but I do not need to throw money at that one in fact I have gone long after it was shorted massively.
I am waiting to see how the 360 performs this holiday season as I think it has one of its strongest combinations and should perform well. The PS3 I think in europe is still riding its brand although I think we have some indication that the price cut for the 360 has helped it significantly. For me the PS3 has not proved it is doing anything more than staying in third position as it still promises jam tomorrow and Microsoft have always managed to counter any moves that Sony made when attempting jam today.
My personal targets:
PS3 - Short term stop the PS3 from exceeding 75 million personally I think it should be 70 million but a lot depends on if you believe that the PS3 will still be Sony's only console on sale in 7 or 8 years from now. Although I think the system has the oomph to survive the perception will be that it is old when Microsoft with its success this generation plugs any gaps its system had this time round.
WIii - Short term stop the Wii from exceeding 180 million personally I think it should be around 150 this is much harder target as more money gets pumped into this stock and so I have little impact and lose lots of money. My other problem with Nintendo is will they produce another Wii like they have with the DSi extending the life by the back door.
360 - Short term maintain a price of 68 million. A lot depends on how well they do this holiday season and if they under perform I will no doubt lose bucket loads of DKP especially as that would mean the PS3 will by default of performed well.
I think my choices highlight the risk in investing in this stock when compared to say something like World at War which is more predictable than the console lts number which are not.