The global economy has been very rocky as of late. I have a feeling this effecting the video game sales as much as it does other things. Have you noticed that the amount of trading going on has been a lot on the whole.
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Potentially as time goes on and the networth of the most active players increases it might be worth considering upping the 75K limit on the automated market maker, so it's easier to close positions.
It's a delicate balance though as obviously newer players still need to be able to come in and trade effectively.
@Mushashi, I had suffered even bigger loss than your 50% (69% for FF:CC7 March 08). Who was it that won 13 Million DKP ? I remember (seeing the post) it was someone in the Top 10, and it was on PSP, but couldn't remember the name.
What was your biggest short investment in GLS ? I am asking this since you seem to specialize in GLS.
@welshbloke, Yeah, normally it is quite hard to made money on H/W futures. Only times you can win big if there is an outside influence, like PSP bundle that not many people are aware of, price cut that should increase # but didn't, GTAIV which should increase PS3 and X360 H/W# but didn't, Wii's under shipment or NDS's out of stock.
The bigger margin normally come from S/W future, like my 1.4 Million profit that came from CoD:WaW PS3 Nov 08 short.
I have never had enough spare DKP to invest more than 1 million DKP in futures. I think my biggest loss on futures was maybe 50% wrong guess but I do not keep records of my trading.
Futures can win or lose very big,a player said they won 13 million DKP in one month from hardware futures.
GLS is a longer investment haul and certainly if you invest heavily you will not be able to sell without affecting the price significantly.
It is certainly difficult to get out of stock when you have many millions invested without causing significant price movements. We simply do not have enough in the pot to allow movements of that nature.
I am confident in my long range predictions on stock that I am heavy on but that is not to say I get battered because I do and because I am effectively tied in due to the amount of movement that would be incurred I have to weather the storm.
I occasionally dable in the NPD numbers but never significantly and because of this lethargy I always miss out on the good buys find the prices normally to be close or not far enough to matter.
@deftangel, It is true that there are things about GLS that made it not as attractive as futures, while there are things about futures that made it not as attractive as GLS.
In fact, my investment is mostly in futures up to May or June, when there was still S/W futures to trade on. Once there was no S/W futures, I then started to invest in GLS.
So far, I mostly invested in small amounts (less than 2 Million) in GLS, so there was no big problem when I tried to get out. And I tried to get at least 30% margin, so I got some leeway when trying to cash out. In your example, if you believed that ultimately, GTAIV GLS should be 4 Million, I will only invest if the price is above 5.2 Million (4 Million + 30% margin).
So far, my Top 3 GLS investment is on Diablo 3 (8 Million), Halo Wars (4 Million) & GoW3 (3 Million). I am looking forward to see how those investment pan out (whether I would have difficulties like you and soupsoup mentioned regarding cashing out of GLS). Wish you luck on your futures playing.
About GTAIV PS3, I just realized that my own prediction for it was still 7.5 Million, which is what I decided before actual release. I changed the estimate, but lost that info when my laptop was stolen August 08. My last simEx data backup was on May 08, so I lose 3 month data :(
@Mushashi, "possibility of large DKP investment for maximum profits/losses" I don't like the bolded part, since that is the negative parts of futures. I have been burned badly before, like on CC:FF7 March 08, Prof Layton Feb 08, Wii Dec 07. Had you suffered a big loss from futures in the past ? Anything that cause you loss of 1 Million DKP or higher ?
I believe you are correct in your current strategy,futures have the benefit of relative short investment period,no DKP withdrawing cost and possibility of large DKP investment for maximum profits/losses ;-)
I'm going to move this discussion here from the Wii thread :)
I do see what your saying about GLS stocks. In fact I've made quite a bit of my networth from them. The problem for me is that the money can be tied up for a long time making it difficult to re-invest in other stocks to keep pace with Top 25/10.
Example: I believe GLS for GTA:IV PS3 will be no more than 5m. I've 7.5m invested, most of it at prices of 7-8m. Following some financials from Take 2, I spent some more to get the price to under 5m as I don't believe this SKU is at 4m yet.
You can see a few comments on the thread where I'm talking to myself though these comments can't be completely without merit as I've had some up bids on them.
Anyhow, the price has rebounded to 5.14m. That's fine as it's close enough to my target price. If I could cash out all my investment at 5.14 I would. Problem is, I've no way of doing that without significantly adjusting the price which would be counter-productive because a) I'd be pushing the price up to where I think it needs shorting again and b) very little profit for me because I'd have sold some of those shares at the same price anyway (so no profit). Not to mention what would happen to my networth/margin if I cashed out a third of my investment in that stock but pushed the price up to 6m!
So effectively that money is dead for now meaning I've only a relatively small percentage of my margin to play in futures to try and make cash. As much as I could invest it GLS, it's much harder to get it out again to re-invest.
Less cash to invest compared to Top 25/10 means they will only get further away. If truth be told, I probably got too dependent on GLS so I'll be playing Futures for a bit to try and even it up a bit.
Yea I spent a few days there during the summer and I really loved the town. The college I've recieved an offer from (Emmanuel) is also smack bang in the middle as well, literally you cross the street and you're in the shopping centre. So not too long a walk back from the pubs at 3 in the morning :-).
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Question: What do the owners of this site do to advertise themselves?