@zeromous, Actually only over-the-air analog television will be shut down - cable companies and the like have to provide analog broadcasts until I think 2011. The number of people who are watching over-the-air analog television is very small in the first place and the number likely to purchase "the latest in technology" out of that group is even smaller. Also, some will choose just to go with the converter box (cable boxes aren't being subsidized, converter boxes are). One last thing to mention is that many people who aren't technophiles will not even get the fact that they have to have a HD source feeding to their new HDTV to get actual HD content (this is one of the largest problems with HD - the education of consumers).
The adoption of HD in the U.S. will be driven by content and prices (for both hardware, content, and HD television services that are currently over-priced). It will not be until after 2011 that HD is in the good majority of homes.
Maybe this conversation should be moved over to the PS3 stock listing as it directly has not much to do with LittleBigPlanet.
Good point bringing up the digital signal conversion, however remember that people won't have to upgrade their TVs. They can simply get a (much cheaper) converter box. And let's face it, many families won't be spending hundreds of dollars to buy a new TV when the old one is still working. Besides, once you've spent hundreds on a new TV, will you have the budget to run out and spend hundreds more on a new gaming console? Not many would. A PS2 won't look that bad on a new flat panel TV...not if you like playing it on an old one.
Good point about the rebate cheques ($1200 per couple, along with potential bonuses for kids). This (incredibly stupid) plan doesn't start until May/June however, so don't expect it to show up in sales until after then (if it effects it at all).
Also I forgot to add re: HD televisions. American taxpayers are about to receive a 600$ rebate from their government. For everyone who doesn't have a mortgage that will buy some TV or PS3/360. Heck its almost enough for both if you buy a cheap flatpanel like I did (200$ walmart)
I've decided to take the risk in order to cash in on the inevitable hype from this game. I bought in quite low in the summer (sub 1 million) and due to its stability am on my second round of investment in this stock. I feel that the ceiling leading up to release could be as high as 400 DKP based on current levels and I'm willing to be patient with this position.
I agree the release date has a lot to do with how this game will do, but all indications are toward steady progress and a polished game released in Q3, well in time for christmas. If that changes, I'll re-evaluate my position in LBP
I think you are missing one of the main factors behind the adoption of HD in North America right now. In the US in 2009, analog television will be shutdown. Already, its nearly impossible to buy even a 20-27" CRT television for a comparable price to the save 720p flatpanel set. Its so serious that the US government is even subsidizing cable boxes for consumers.
Flatpanels are just cheaper to mass-produce, and therefore there will be a lot americans buying 720p televisions in the next 1-3 years. They will want the latest in living room computers for their families.
As techno-philes, you and I tend to be a bit more thoughtful of the technology we adopt, but for the average consumer it boils down to "my ps2 or xbox look like crap on my new tv".
None of this goes any length to convince you that LPB is going to be a big seller (its unrelated really), I just wanted to comment on your thoughts regarding HD adoption over the course of this generation.
FYI I have bid everyone up in this conversation! I'm loving the honest debate.
I'm telling you there is some lurker who gets off on bidding me down, and evidently, you too dazer. :(
TSE should really change the bidding system so that inappropriate comments get reported, dealing a penalty to the poster. Ideally no comments that are appropriate should be downbid, or discounted completely. 0 or 1 bid becomes the lowest (and therefore least valued) opinion.
@lstormy10, Oh, that was meant at the person who bid me down.
Well, I predict that the game will have steady sales outside of the holidays but if it follows the rumors that have been going around about it being released in September, that will be enough to make the game get put on the Lists of those who own or already have a ps3.
All in all, I believe it will be the first major hit for kids on the ps3. I expect the game's sales to resemble the sales pattern of the ps3 this 'mas.
If it is released after Christmas, I expect the sales of the game to be extremely slow. I am not buying into it until I have a release date.
@zeromous, @dazer, I agree with both post, in that PS3 is not doing as bad as it seemed like (during 2007 Feb - May period). I certainly hope that PS3 can became a clear #2 console worldwide, with significant difference with X360 WW sales (I'm not sure whether it is logical to hope for PS3 to became #1 at the moment, since Wii is still going strong in all region).
I don't think HD penetration will increase significantly in the next 3-5 years, especially the one that fully support 1080p and HDMI 1.2 (IIRC). One of the reason I haven't purchased PS3 yet, is because I don't have HDTV (and HDMI), and I feel that it is useless to buy PS3 without fully utilizing it's HD potential. As one of the early adopter of DVD (because I see a very big jump on video quality and capabilities of VCD compared to DVD), I somehow didn't feel the urge to jump into HD-DVD or Blu-ray, because the difference has to be enjoyed on HDTV (and I currently don't have HDTV), unlike DVD, which can be enjoyed on standard TV (with component cable support).
About LBP sales, I don't have any idea how it will work, so I stay away from it. :( I haven't see any analyze that is convincing enough (to me) to rely on.
@dazer, I don't believe that zeromous bid you down as I noticed his comments were bid down before you had posted in response to his comments. I believe that most likely a rogue bidder or someone who thought that the comments were bad bid you and zeromous down.
Back to the topic at hand, so based on your opinions, what do you think about the sales of LittleBigPlanet in relation to your comments about the PS3 and the current stock price?
3
Actually only over-the-air analog television will be shut down - cable companies and the like have to provide analog broadcasts until I think 2011. The number of people who are watching over-the-air analog television is very small in the first place and the number likely to purchase "the latest in technology" out of that group is even smaller. Also, some will choose just to go with the converter box (cable boxes aren't being subsidized, converter boxes are). One last thing to mention is that many people who aren't technophiles will not even get the fact that they have to have a HD source feeding to their new HDTV to get actual HD content (this is one of the largest problems with HD - the education of consumers).
The adoption of HD in the U.S. will be driven by content and prices (for both hardware, content, and HD television services that are currently over-priced). It will not be until after 2011 that HD is in the good majority of homes.
Maybe this conversation should be moved over to the PS3 stock listing as it directly has not much to do with LittleBigPlanet.