I would say if the 52% figure in the above article is true, Halo 3 could hit 15 million or so, at least 10 million, considering the worldwide expectancy on the exchange now is hovering around 60 million, it would not be inconceivable for such a strong flagship title to be owned by 1/4 Xbox 360 owners. Although the market is saturated with FPSs (go with me on this one) most average gamers would buy the flagship, which is Halo. On the original Xbox, I only had Halo and Halo 2 as my FPS games. Those who are attracted to the genre will buy more major releases (i.e. Halos, CoDs, Ghost Recons, Rainbow 6s, etc.) than the average gamer. Now I am more into FPSs, but Halo was still the first I really liked due to smooth control and production values. The saturation comes from (IMO) grade C titles like Timeshift and Frontlines (maybe Frontlines is a B, but whatever, I personally hated the demo.)
Bungie continues to support Halo 3 with new content and auto-updates and, as we heard yesterday, has no intention of letting up. Due out this spring, the Legendary Map Pack will introduce another selection of multiplayer maps, the first of which has been identified as Ghost Town.
Once infrequently referred to as "O.K. Corral," Ghost Town (pictured throughout this story) is the first map from the upcoming Legendary Map Pack, the second injection of downloadable content coming to Halo 3 later this Spring.
the first two halos also had tough competition to deal with, the fps genre has been over staurated for years now and yet they rose towering above the rest as setting the standard and selling alot of copies. apart from rainbow six and maybe UT i wouldnt consider the rest much serious competition. my point was that most people who buy a 360 will also pick up halo on the cheap to go with it leading to long legs.
Halo has SHIPPED 8.1M to retailers. Based on Activision's PR, we know that Halo 3 sold less than ~7M as Activision took the crown for 2007 with 7M+ copies sold according to NPD, Charttrack, & GFk.
It's likely close to 7M, but until people see legs, it's going to be tough for this stock to move much. It's dropped heavily in Europe, so it's really up to the US to carry much of the load.
Also, it's an extremely crowded Genre with COD 4 doing so well, and more shooters coming every couple of months. Rainbow Six 2 is in March, Unreal Tournament will be out this year, Army of Two, Battlefield, Far Cry, Frontline, and many others.
Given we're less than halfway through the cycle, I see 10M as a likely target, but there's likely not a ton of reason to drive it higher until we get a few more months of strong legs.
i really cant see why this game isnt valued higher, i mean it already has sold 8.1million according to microsoft and halo 1+2 proved they have legs so theres no reason to suggest this wont sell many more copies over time, it also has very good chances of it being part of a bundle probably next xmas. most people who buy the 360 over the next couple of years will buy this game with it as it is seen as the symbol of the xbox and has a huge online community. halo2 sold 8.5million copies and the 360 only had a total userbase of 22million, if the same ratio is applied here (probably wont reach this figure) to current GLS for 360 then halo3 could sell about 20million. this is probably unrealistic but something in the 13-15 range is more achieveable imo. verdict = currently undervalued.
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