@pilias_simber, I interpreted him saying 2.5 million for the bundle & the estimates I made with the ranges were for MGS4 sales from the bundle. 10 million hehe, where do you get that # from did someone put an order to short at 10 mil?
@Joe80, funny I've been saying 4 million to 4.5 before the bundle news. With the bundle news I would agree with you, about 5 million is probably about right. 6.5 million or 7 or whatever it's at now is still to high, and 10 million is still stupid high.
@Joe80, Thanks for letting me know. I believe you based on past behaviors. I also misread that statement. I thought KSpray was saying an automatic 2.5 million copies of the bundle, not total game sales. I think 2.5 million is at least within the realm of possibility by Christmas time, though I think some sales will be snuffed out by Gran Turismo prologue, Gran Turismo, GTA IV, Little Big Planet, and FFXIII, all of which launch this year as well. If MGS4 was the only high profile title like past MGS games were at the time of launch I could see it doing a little better, but game competition is much higher these days, good games get snuffed out because you see a ton more of them than in days past, and theres more choices in consoles now than you have in the past as well making it even harder for game sales on an exclusive title like this.
@pilias_simber, A. I don't think we will be able to say for a long time, that's all I can say. B. Some fraction, can't say.
But MGS2 sold about 1 million more than MGS1 did. So right there you had a million people buy it who did not own MGS1.
What I mean by this is that the same can happen for MGS4, i.e. people buy it who did not own previous MGS games, probably can happen to even a larger degree than in the past given the hype surrounding MGS4, the momentum PS3 has, the fact that Dual Shock 3 & GT 5 Prologue are releasing right before MGS4, & they are actually bundling MGS4 in with consoles. That is a lot of upward pressure on MGS4 sales!
I'm still not in this stock because I was not sure about a precise sales point & unfortunately I would've jumped in it but I was too busy this week when the bundle news came out. However, I think 7 million might be too high. I'd guess more around 4.5-5.5 million right now.
@Joe80, OK what if we think about this from another angle. The PS3 does not have the install base the PS2 did, nor is it likely to ever match the PS2 in total sales. The 360 and the Wii are both stealing customers from Sony, the only question is how many will they steal.
How many people who in the past purchased MGS 2 will either A: own a Wii or a 360. or B: not purchase a PS3 and/or not purchase MGS4.
Based on the continued low software sales despite the rise in hardware sales I would say a significant portion of teh PS3 owners are buying it for it's BD capabilities and not purchasing it to buy games.
Are we really expecting this game to do just as well or better than MGS 2, as the current price is stating this game will perform?
@pilias_simber, First thing. I did not bid down your last comment, just want you to know that. 2nd in my last comment when I said sell like hotcakes I meant the bundle.
3rd. Link to non VGChartz sales info. This site indicates here: MGS1 sold 6+ million & MGS2 sold 7+ million. Higher than the VGC ~5.6 million estimates for each.
I believe Sony & or Konami actually put out the 6+ & 7+ million #s because I see the same text at this site as well.
"If sales of the PS3 in the US hit 5 million this year and the 80GB sells at a 50/50 split with the 40GB (this has been the case so far by reports) your are automatically selling 2.5 million MGS4 games by Xmas.
Don't think this is too much of a stretch dependant on how long this bundle is around." ----------------------------- I agree. I'd say an automatic 1.8-2.25 million just to be safe. And I'd like to back up that I find your statements factually accurate in your last post in this thread. ----------------------------- 1. I believe this bundle will replace the 80gb one currently available. Unless they plan to lower the price of the 80gb and most likely also the 40gb. I think if sales stay decent this bundle will replace the 80gb, but if sales slow down they might lower the price of the 40 & 80 slightly and introduce the bundle too. 2. True, I adjusted the automatic figure based on my opinion. 3. It could have a slight price drop, say to $379. People would still buy the bundle, which would still be a great value with the DS3. And who's to say those who buy a 40gb instead of the bundle wouldn't still buy MGS4, saving them $60. And if the 40gb dropped to $350, that would be more savings that could be spent on MGS4. 4. Why? Anyways, Kotaku already stated that the 80gb bundle will have at least partial hardware emulation. 5. The bundle will likely stay until the end of the year, previous Sony bundles usually last that long & the 80gb Motorstorm bundle did. 6. pilias_simber last comment. True, but keep in mind that this bundle will generate more PS3 sales in the US where more people have waited on buying a PS3 than in EU where the brand is stronger & more have already purchased PS3. I'm still holding off on whether the bundle will or will not emerge in EU. However, your point is valid, but also taken into account my bolded statement. I'd therefore adjust my automatic sales prediction to 1.6-2.1 million. Yes its still high because I just thought too that this thing is going to sell like hotcakes. Again I hold 0 shares in this stock, this is my straightforward honest beliefs. (Damn site logged me out, luckily I copied comment before hitting submit!)
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I interpreted him saying 2.5 million for the bundle & the estimates I made with the ranges were for MGS4 sales from the bundle. 10 million hehe, where do you get that # from did someone put an order to short at 10 mil?