As an avid player of Subsistance I can assure you it did not sell 1 million copies, and Vgchartz data is probably the closest in this case. Im not sure where wikipedia got its information...if it had sold 1 million copies the servers wouldn't have been shutdown after 6 months).
Subsistence doesn't count anyway for the purposes of the TSE, such as MGO + MGS4 are two seperate SKUs.
@zeromous, I'm not saying it should not drop. I stated earlier that I would be shorting it if it wasn't so volatile. On the plus side, you found the post I've been looking for but was unable to find, where I had stated what Jesse recently did. http://www.thesimexchange.com/community-comment.php?id=11621
This stock has a ways to go downward. This should be in the low 400 DKP range. There is no reason to believe that MGS4 will eclipse 4million copies sold, as there are barely that number of systems out in the world.
You can dismiss Subsistence, but the truth is it added to MGS3 sales. But that's not the argument here. Sony is not going to give up on gaming easily, the PS brand is what kept them afloat for a very long time. They used it to fund the rest of the company, the same way they can use the rest of the company to help fund the PS3. The PS3 is very important for them because of Bluray as well, as jameseyryan discussed. And the PS3 is linked to the successful PSP. Furthermore, the PS3 will soon make money for Sony in a new market with On Demand content. A pricecut from $600 to $500 did produce some results, but the truth is that is still too high. A further pricecut to $400 will produce much better results than a $500 SKU. And onso with each lower pricecut.
I have never said MGS4 will sell over 5 million and people seem to believe that I am either holding shares in it or believe its price on the SE should go up. I don't. I would be shorting it right now but its too volatile. I am just trying to describe how it is linked to MGS2 and its sales should not be so dependent on a linear trend from MGS3. I'll type more about this later perhaps because my mouse has stopped working.
From vgchartz: 5.56 MGS2 0.16 Substance PS2 = 5.72 million
You also might want to note, that MGS3 (an arguably superior game) sold
3.96 MGS3 0.15 Subsistance = a 4.11 million
That tells me that about 1.75 million people somewhat regretted buying MGS2 (I'd say they are ignorant, but that's not what this post is about) and chose not to add a better follow-up title to their collection.
Considering the install base of PS3 is so weakthere is no way this title will eclipse 5 million in its lifetime.
PS3 is supposed to drive the gaming division (thanks to PS2 they can/have taken their time), the Blu-ray movie division, helps drive the flat panel division and is central to SONY's future in digital distribution of their content.
SONY is currently looking at selling off its finance arm...raising approx 8 Billion USD in the process.
"I agree that Sony desperately needs market share...I just fail to see why a large company with interests in many areas would continue to dump money into a single division."
While I'm not weighing in on the MGS discussion as I am still undecided, I would just like to point one thing out about Sony. They will "dump" money into the gaming division in the bucketloads for one main reason. Blu-Ray. I read an article referenced in this site (couldn't find it) that Blu-Ray (including PS3 sales) had outsold HD-DVD in North America. A victory in both the format war and the console war is worth billions upon billions in revenue. Even a draw or a loss in the console war could still be a victory in their eyes as it would mean millions of Blu-ray consoles distributed all around the world that will be no less useful. If Blu-Ray wins out and gets the kind of exposure that DVD has for even a couple of years then that is a huge success for Sony. Only a huge technological advance will top Blu-Ray because if we can see everything in High Def and Blu-Ray allows for multiple lanuages and the like then what need have we for further advances when watching a movie?
The winner of this format war could be the standard for years to come as new technology comes from seeing a need and feeding it, but, if there is no need......
The format war could be worth trillions. So don't think Sony will just pack up here and go on to PS4. While it will always be in the back of their mind, the rest of their mind is thinking of the bonanza that could stem from winning the format war with PS3 as the playmaker in that. On that basis Sony could well factor in a price cut/extra bundling for the holidays as long as they can see that it will lead to greater profit.
That wiki entry about MGS3 is well-referenced...except the comment about Subsistence selling 1 million copies (which has none). Without any confirmation, I don't believe it. Even vgchartz doesn't list it. If it is considered a completely seperate SKU for sales (and I don't see why it would be...), then it should be a seperate stock anyways and irrelevent to this discussion (if MGS4 will have a quarter of its sales from it).
I'm not sure I would call MGS more accessible. Comparing the stories and general focus of each series, I would say that Splinter Cell is a bit more mainstream. Of course it also spreads itself thin over all platforms and probably cannibalizes its sales through speedy sequel turnover time.
I agree that Sony desperately needs market share...I just fail to see why a large company with interests in many areas would continue to dump money into a single division. Shareholders won't want their money lost on PS3 price cuts when it could be put into LCD TV ads. At some point there might be a decision to milk the last bit from the PS2 line (still very lucrative) and cut their losses with the PS3 and start work on an early release for the PS4. Right now, their gaming division is rapidly changing from a money-maker to a money-pit. Sony wasn't built around gaming and nor is it dependent on it and I'm certain that execs are already setting a point where they'll have to cut their losses if things don't improve soon. If one price cut didn't produce results, why would another? Sorry, drifted a bit off topic.
I agree that MGS2 and MGS4 have similar circumstances...however, MGS2 came off of great sales and critical acclaim of MGS while MGS4 is coming after a big drop in sales. Will the MGS fans come back? Hmm...
@Laoldar, I do not think Splinter Cell is a good comparison because it hasn't approached the sales that the MGS series has. The best it ever did was 2.93 million copies with SC1 for XB. And ever since then it has been going downhill. SC1 XB 2.93 million SC2 XB 1.41 million SC3 XB 1.07 million SC4 360 1.02 million
MGS1 PS1 5.51 million MGS2 PS2 5.56 million (not including Substance) MGS3 PS2 3.96 million (not including Subsistence, which Wikipedia actually has sales at >1 million)
MGS is a more accessible game than SC & it sells much better and is more popular. There is not a better comparison, as the stealth genre is much like the survival horror genre, it is not broad in the amount of games. MGS stands alone as the stealth king, much like Resident Evil stands alone as the survival horror king.
My last post was ENTIRELY about why MGS2 did so well & why MGS2 & MGS4 have so many things in common. I don't know why you're acting like I went back to MGS2 in order to try and forget about MGS3. And if you add Subsistence sales to MGS3 its actually sold over 4.96 million.
The lower sales for MGS3 could be due to the fact that the game came out in holiday 2004, going against a barrage of other amazing games and pretty late in the PS2's lifetime. Look at God of War, which came out a few months later than MGS3, it only pulled in 2.66 million.
If we look at how much MGS2 & MGS3 sold in each region here is how it breaks down: MGS2 JA: .85 mil MGS3 JA: .86 mil..... +.01 MGS2 NA: 2.29 mil MGS3 NA: 1.42 mil... -.87 MGS2 Others: 2.42 mil MGS3: 1.68 mil.. -.74
That difference from MGS2 to MGS3 is not bad at all considering the timeframe during the PS2's life when MGS 2 was released (& how it showcased the PS2's power & 1st AAA PS2 game) compared to the timeframe of when MGS3 was released. Now MGS4 is being released in a timeframe much more similar to MGS2 than when MGS3 was released, the main point of my previous post. You can't just compare games in a linear fashion: game 1, game 2, game 3 and "now game 4 must follow this linear trend".
Yes, I believe there will be a pricecut this holiday on the PS3. But it may come in a variety of forms. Either the current 80gb bundle gets a price cut or Sony comes out with more bundles or a different PS3 SKU, passing on more savings. PS3 needs to start gaining marketshare, that is the most important thing. If more PS3's aren't sold, software will not sell enough, and this will also hurt 3rd party support. Do you believe that PS3 selling badly and software sales being very low, but with a higher PS3 price; is actually better than PS3 selling decently with decent software sales but a lower hardware price? It costs tons of money to make games, Sony has to worry about software sales just as much as hardware sales. Software is where the profit is. And the cost of Bluray & the hardware in the PS3 is dropping steadily, they will be able to pass on more savings this year.
I'm not saying traders should price a denied rumor into the price of MGS4 stock, I'm saying that this is in the back of the minds of traders just like Brian (Kultofcows) of the SE talks about how users would be having to price in the risk of cancellation into a futures contract before the change was made so that a cancelled game would be refunded.
I doubt it would take a year to compress cinematics from MGS4 to fit on several DVDs. If the game did come to 360, they would either already be working on it or be able to create it quickly afterwards with the full team, and it is easier to develop for the 360.
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As an avid player of Subsistance I can assure you it did not sell 1 million copies, and Vgchartz data is probably the closest in this case. Im not sure where wikipedia got its information...if it had sold 1 million copies the servers wouldn't have been shutdown after 6 months).
Subsistence doesn't count anyway for the purposes of the TSE, such as MGO + MGS4 are two seperate SKUs.