Here's the quote from the Spanish site, autotranslated roughly:
I am going to advance something to you; yes, we are working in pack of PlayStation 3 that includes Metal Gear 4 Solid and the new DualShock. We want that it is in the street before Easter and that is our fight at the moment.
Impressions from the TGS demo. "The game plays like all the other MGS games did, except for one minor detail. If you want to make Snake perform a move that has nothing to with combat, then the "action" interface would be switched on with the triangle. Judging from the game's demo build, it is now safe to say that this game will definitely be as pretty as it looked in just about every trailer. All the real-time action looks extremely superb and the effects that Snake's camouflage suit look impressive. The portions of gameplay that have a lot going on in the screen doesn't appear to slow the game, or the visual prowess, down, so that appears to be another factor that ties in well with what looks to be another visual masterpiece."
@argon, agreed. The big name franchises have been trading at higher multiples for months (this title did not at the beginning of the simExchange). However, I think as the smaller titles that have been the biggest short targets fade from the exchange, these big titles will be more in control as shorts shift their attention.
@zeromous, coming down to the SKU would be too specific. If a publisher did a second print with some bug fixes (like one that prevents you from running an XBox 360 exploit), that would have a different Stock Keeping Unit number, but would essentially be the same game.
We are forecasting how particular games sell--there isn't really a need to forecast how a particular SKU sells. On a prediction market, you wouldn't want to list them separately as that only divides up the liquidity. There isn't much interest in trading Persona 3 to start with, there would be even less for each Persona stock if you divided it up by regular edition and special edition.
So in practice it would either be trading a Persona 3 stock that includes the special edition sales or just a stock that includes original Persona 3 sales. The former would be better since we are forecasting how the game did. Cutting off the forecast because the game is now a new SKU would shortchange the game.
You missed my first point. How many copies do special editions normally sell? How often do titles jump back to the top of the charts when one comes out? For the most part they won't matter that much for the purposes of this site.
I don't claim to decide "how low is too low". That's your strawman. The admins decide that.
You have yet to show why anyone should even care about this. You started off by claiming that Subsistence shouldn't count for MGS3 simply because it had an online mode tacked on...which really has nothing to do with MGS4/MGO which are seperate titles entirely. The SimExchange has never listed a special edition (or expanded edition, or whatever) as a seperate title so there's no reason to think that they would start unless they say so. Besides, with the focus of the site moving towards short-term forecasting, it's really a moot point. Finally, as I said, these special editions rarely move a significant amount of units and are rarely tracked in sales so they don't seem to be that important for this site.
And yes, some players have made a lot of money playing off small stocks (perhaps you've spoken to one) but that's hardly the point of this site. Penny stocks should disappear (and they are) from this site. While some games will disappoint in sales, I don't think the admins are going to go out of their way to list them.
What you mean like every other imminent overpriced stock that doesn't have any activity? how do you determine which one is low activity? How low is too low and how low activity do you have to be to be delisted? And if so, shouldn't a stock simply be delisted, rather than never listed at all?
I see above that Joe at least understands what Im getting at. I see your comment as just being a straw man (surprise!)- its besides the point and doesn't address the issue.
We're not talking penny stocks here, and well, some of the greatest fortunes have been made on low value stocks without any activity....until suddenly...
@Laoldar, Well there's the problem of games that have their production stopped when a special edition comes out, which then claims all the new sales for the original game. For ex: CoD2->CoD2 GotY, CoD3->CoD3 Gold, Oblivion->Oblivion GotY. So there are many variables, some pointing to keep each SKU separate and others to not keep them separate. Perhaps it really is a judgement call on each game, or each games type of SE. I know that's not fun, but it would make things more accurate.
How often do special edition SKUs move enough product to make a big impression? Do we really need an increase in low-value stocks that won't have any activity?
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