@-THE-RAY-, An interesting point, one I partially agree with... but it's still going to be a AAA title in the growing ps3 library. Btw, while reading all the reasons why a game needs to reach the bigger market it was, the article that seemed to spell doom for ps3 made me think: hmmm, if this reasoning should turn out true than Little Big Planet is a very wise move made a lot in advance of the market. As cool as I think it is I always wondered what the sense of such a casual application is for such a hardcore priced device/at this stage in ps3 life... either way there is a hope for PS3, though no guarantees without more big games without a price drop imo.
Games Radar writes, "It’s been the rallying cry of Sony fanboys from the beginning. Things might be bad right now, but you just wait until Metal Gear Solid 4. Then we’ll see the PlayStation 3 rise up to conquer, just like the PS2 did, and you’ll all be sorry for doubting it."
MGS4 has a very dedicated following of the most hardcore fan. It's guaranteed to sell 3 to 4 million off its fanbase alone.
All other sales should come from people who've seen the graphics or heard from word of mouth about how good the story is, etc,etc. I predict it'll hit 7 to 8 million total lifetime sales.
@Arbiter, still, the ps3 comunicating nicely with cellphone/psp/camera(they do make cameras too, rihgt?) I think could make it into a livingroom comfy computer.
On the Singstar-rock music games: I used term electronic music because I didn't know how else to refer to exaclty the types of music you pointed out as popular (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) electronic rhythm based music with vocals as it's centerpiece. These popular music songs would be hard to make into a guitar hero/rock band piece, but they fit great into Singstar, making it a possibility for building not as much a game but a music video distribution system with the plus of karaoke. I think that has the potential to become a unimaginably HUGE market. Now I'm a person who grew up on Dream Theater, No doubt loving Explosions in the Sky, 30 Seconds to Mars, ... my point being I'm a 'rock' kinda person myself but to caputure the bulk of the population, the true casual market games that can do the music played in clubs are needed, and for that Singstar I see the closest and with already a brand name and infrastructure in the works.
@ixaarii, the living room awareness strategy doesn't work for Sony as the company is already associated with the living room. The point of the strategy for MSFT was to get out of the PC and into new areas. People didn't associate with MSFT outside of the computer.
Sony has been making TVs, home theaters, and other equipment for decades. If Blu-Ray fails for them, that is a huge step back, but not as big as if PS3 fails for them. PS2 carried this company through the hard times. At least now Stringer has turned around other parts of the company so they aren't reliant on the gaming division. The Sony Bravia line is one of the most popular TV products once again.
Sony exiting Cell research doesn't mean they will not be using the product any longer and does not preclude future PlayStation products using the Cell processor. It just simply means they will not be an equity holder of the project. Neither Microsoft or Nintendo are funders of PowerPC research. Sony would just have to buy future Cell technology from IBM and Toshiba, rather than making any revenue by selling the chips. This is probably a good decision as few other customers have lined up to buy Cell processors.
@ixaarii, I must disagree with you on the SingStar vs Guitar Hero analysis. Much more people of the gaming demographic would likely want to be a rock star than a pop star. I'm not sure which country you are from, but electronic music is not popular at all in the US (I assume you are from Europe).
In the US, the most popular music right now is hip hop/rap (Kanye West, 50 Cent, Timbaland, Beyonce, etc.) If there was a Rap Hero game, it would probably do very well. Rock isn't as popular as it was before, but much of the gaming demographic isn't all that trendy and still listen to rock. Many more gamers would pretend to be Metallica than pretend to be Clay Aiken.
@Laoldar, 500,000 is probably the case with a game as expensive as MGS4. Most games don't have development budgets anywhere near this size so the equation must be a bit different.
@ixaarii, in terms of MGS sales needing a strong first day, this is the case with most products in the public spotlight. Were iPhone sales really critical to the first day in terms of total cash flow for the lifetime of the product? No...but the entire world was watching how well it sold on day one. People want to know if other people thought the product is worth buying.
This is why the first weekend is key for a movie. If you have a bad first weekend in the box office, no one else is going to go see your movie either the second weekend. There just isn't any buzz for your movie.
Most of these products you can forecast lifetime sales based on the very early sales and scale them out (which is why we don't need to trade lifetime stocks until every copy is off the shelves).
Oh and just for the sake of comparison (sorry for not including this in the previous post), Nintendo's 2006 numbers show revenue of $7.8 billion with net income of $1.4 billion...so they actually make more profit than Sony, a larger corporation with 10 times the revenue.
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An interesting point, one I partially agree with... but it's still going to be a AAA title in the growing ps3 library. Btw, while reading all the reasons why a game needs to reach the bigger market it was, the article that seemed to spell doom for ps3 made me think: hmmm, if this reasoning should turn out true than Little Big Planet is a very wise move made a lot in advance of the market. As cool as I think it is I always wondered what the sense of such a casual application is for such a hardcore priced device/at this stage in ps3 life... either way there is a hope for PS3, though no guarantees without more big games without a price drop imo.